国外观察家分析敏昂莱访俄的真实目的

据缅军官方媒体消息,敏昂莱在7月12日与俄罗斯国防部高级官员举行了会晤,但俄罗斯国防部将敏昂莱此次访问称之为非正式访问。

自2000年左右开始,以往的缅军政权就试图从俄罗斯获得核技术,并在本周访问期间缅甸科技部与俄罗斯国家原子能集团公司(Rosatom)之间签署了谅解备忘录,其中涵盖了在核能领域的培训和技能发展方面的合作,该协议就是由敏昂莱监督签署的。

华盛顿国立军事学院东南亚事务扎卡里·阿布扎 (Zachary Abuza)教授表示,敏昂莱此行不仅是为了获得军事武器和技术来镇压缅甸的反政变活动,他还想表明可以自由的前往东南亚以外的国家。


人权组织表示,自2021年政变以来敏昂莱被指控对平民犯下危害人类罪及战争负有责任,且缅军还被指控在2017年期间对罗兴亚人实施过种族灭绝,根据国际刑事法院(ICC)、国际法院(ICJ)和普遍管辖权,如果罪名成立,将有权在其他国家实施逮捕。


扎卡里·阿布扎 表示,敏昂莱访俄还想表明在国际关系中俄罗斯承认了他们。


东京大学缅甸研究员Sam Baron表示,敏昂莱顶着来自国内及国外的压力签署了一项关于核技术的协议,可能会成为与西方国家谈判妥协的理由。作为缅军政权,虽然没有条件广泛的使用核技术,但如果有这种条件,国际社会在与缅军政权的谈判中不得不考虑该问题。在过去缅军方领导者们在面临此类危机时也尝试过使用这种方式,在2007年面对经济危机及国际压力,如同现在一样也曾与俄罗斯国家原子能集团公司(Rosatom)签署了一项关于使用核技术的协议。


澳大利亚国立大学研究缅甸事务的亨特·马斯顿(Hunter Marston)表示,除了解决缅军政权面临的经济危机和能源短缺问题,认为敏昂莱前往俄罗斯还为了表明西方国家的制裁是无效的。


俄罗斯远东联邦大学分析家阿尔乔姆·卢金表示,缅军领导人并没有受到俄罗斯最高领导人接待,只是将他作为购买俄罗斯制造的军事设备的老顾客,并且让顾客满足需求。


尽管缅军领导人敏昂莱一直试图证明自己是俄罗斯的忠实盟友,但在访俄期间接待他的不是国家领导人而是军事指挥官。俄罗斯媒体报道称,敏昂莱不被允许与俄罗斯总统普京会面。



Foreign observers analyze the real purpose of Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Russia



According to the official media of the Myanmar army, Min Aung Hlaing held a meeting with senior officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense on July 12, but the Russian Defense Ministry called Min Aung Hlaing's visit an unofficial visit.


Since around 2000, previous Myanmar military regimes have tried to obtain nuclear technology from Russia, and during this week's visit a memorandum of understanding was signed between Myanmar's Ministry of Science and Technology and Rosatom, which covers the nuclear energy sector. cooperation in training and skills development, the agreement was overseen by Min Aung Hlaing.


Zachary Abuza, a professor of Southeast Asian affairs at the National Military Academy in Washington, said that Min Aung Hlaing was not only there to acquire military weapons and technology to suppress anti-coup activities in Myanmar, he also wanted to show that he was free to travel outside of Southeast Asia. s country.


Human rights groups say Min Aung Hlaing has been accused of crimes against humanity and war against civilians since the 2021 coup, and the Tatmadaw has also been accused of committing genocide against the Rohingya during 2017, according to International Criminal Law. The Court of Justice (ICC), the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and universal jurisdiction, if convicted, will have the power to make arrests in other countries.


Zachary Abuza said that Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Russia also wanted to show that Russia recognizes them in international relations.


Sam Baron, a Myanmar researcher at the University of Tokyo, said Min Aung Hlaing, under pressure from home and abroad, signed an agreement on nuclear technology that could be a reason to negotiate a compromise with Western countries. As the Burmese military regime, although there are no conditions for the widespread use of nuclear technology, if such conditions exist, the international community has to consider this issue in negotiations with the Burmese military regime. In the past, Myanmar military leaders have tried to use this method when faced with such crises. In 2007, faced with the economic crisis and international pressure, as now, they also signed a contract with Rosatom. Agreement on the use of nuclear technology.


Hunter Marston, who studies Myanmar affairs at the Australian National University, said that in addition to addressing the economic crisis and energy shortages facing the Myanmar military regime, Min Aung Hlaing went to Russia to show that Western sanctions were ineffective.


Artem Lukin, an analyst at Russia's Far Eastern Federal University, said that the Burmese army leader was not received by the top Russian leader, but only used him as a regular customer to buy Russian-made military equipment and let customers meet their needs.


Although Burmese army leader Min Aung Hlaing has been trying to prove himself a loyal ally of Russia, he was not received by state leaders but by military commanders during his visit to Russia. Russian media reported that Min Aung Hlaing was not allowed to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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